Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02b1…334b world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1
other 31% +$24
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 2% +$2
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -5.7% -14.7% 26% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -5.7% -14.7% 26% 0% -9.7%
all 41 +3.5% -6.4% 44% 7% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 7% -7.2%
10% -15.3% 7% -16.1%
15% -23.5% 7% -24.2%
20% -31.0% 7% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.09 per $1 lost it wins $6.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage452d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $100 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $51 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 10 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $55 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $26 +$25 +93%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 08 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 06 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 05 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of less than 10% on the EU by June Apr 05 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Apr 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $8 $0 -4%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 30 $1 +$1 +116%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 29 $2 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 29 $27 $0 -1%
Will 'The Chosen: Last Supper — Part 1' gross between 4-6m on opening Mar 28 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $46 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $48 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $10 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $38 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $48 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $48 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $48 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $43 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $42 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $25 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $22 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $50 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.90 · official $44.07 (match) · 160 history records