Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02b2…ecfb sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,437 (-41%) realized −$1,437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,400
crypto 29% −$138
other 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -41.1% -46.8% 37% 37% -53.7%
≤30d 35 -41.1% -46.8% 37% 37% -53.7%
≤90d 35 -41.1% -46.8% 37% 37% -53.7%
all 35 -41.1% -46.8% 37% 37% -53.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 37% -53.7%
10% -51.8% 29% -58.1%
15% -56.5% 23% -62.2%
20% -60.8% 14% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$98 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage7d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$27 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$19 +25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $482 −$474 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $188 −$186 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$9 +44%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $152 +$121 +80%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $153 +$76 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$84 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 +$17 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $87 +$13 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $21 +$18 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $92 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records