Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x02b4…7092
other · 45 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
−$610,436 -158%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$630,801 · open +$21,374
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$90,722
Realized−$630,801
Unrealized+$21,374
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses18 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions49
Markets (closed)341 / 45
Avg bet$8,603
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 49 History 341 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418,720
7 days−$436,013
14 days−$469,387
30 days−$576,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 70¢ $1,154 $20,925 +$19,771 (+1714%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $1,154 $7,950 +$6,796 (+589%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $1,154 $7,650 +$6,496 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $1,154 $6,450 +$5,296 (+459%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $1,154 $5,550 +$4,396 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $1,154 $5,550 +$4,396 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $1,154 $5,250 +$4,096 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $1,154 $4,650 +$3,496 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $1,154 $4,050 +$2,896 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $1,154 $3,750 +$2,596 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $1,154 $3,150 +$1,996 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $1,154 $2,550 +$1,396 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $1,154 $2,250 +$1,096 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1,154 $1,755 +$601 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,154 $1,485 +$331 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,154 $1,350 +$196 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,154 $1,125 −$29 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1,154 $735 −$419 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1,154 $675 −$479 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1,154 $615 −$539 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1,154 $525 −$629 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1,154 $480 −$674 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1,154 $345 −$809 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1,154 $345 −$809 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1,154 $225 −$929 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $82 −$1,126 -1366%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $577 −$8,062 -1397%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $293 −$504 -172%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $732 −$1,143 -156%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,134 −$1,153 -102%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $99 −$1,126 -1138%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 12 $556 −$556 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 12 $656 −$1,434 -219%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $8,724 −$8,724 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $12,840 −$14,907 -116%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $293 −$491 -168%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 12 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1,167 −$1,167 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 12 $172 −$325 -188%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $582 −$1,139 -196%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $224 −$224 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$205,639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-86.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -96.5% -96.9% 1% 1% -100.0%
≤30d 317 -88.8% -89.9% 4% 4% -99.9%
≤90d 341 -85.1% -86.5% 5% 5% -99.8%
all 341 -85.1% -86.5% 5% 5% -99.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -86.5% 5% -99.8%
10% -87.8% 5% -99.8%
15% ← realistic here -89.0% 5% -99.8%
20% -90.1% 5% -99.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90,721.53 · official $90,721.53 (match) · 3500 history records