Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02b4…956f crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (438 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+5%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day438.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (438 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +5.4% -4.6% 48% 35% -7.9%
≤30d 48 +5.4% -4.6% 48% 35% -7.9%
≤90d 48 +5.4% -4.6% 48% 35% -7.9%
all 48 +5.4% -4.6% 48% 35% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover438.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 35% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 27% -16.7%
15% -22.1% 23% -24.8%
20% -29.7% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day438.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$26 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$24 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$20 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$8 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$16 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$19 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$48 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$22 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$14 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$7 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$15 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$11 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$9 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$14 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$60 +239%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$13 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$8 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 495 history records