Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
02 0x02b6…8f5f crypto 604 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,012 (-8%) realized −$1,041 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%327W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day165.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$428
14 days−$565
30 days−$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$616
other 15% −$15
sports 9% −$67
tech 2% +$63
world 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 +20.2% +8.7% 55% 55% +7.5%
≤30d 596 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 45% -14.7%
≤90d 596 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 45% -14.7%
all 596 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 45% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 45% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 39% -22.9%
15% -26.9% 33% -30.3%
20% -34.1% 27% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized−$1,041
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses327 / 269
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)596 / 604
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day165.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 80¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +64%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $34 −$12 -34%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$37 -73%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$41 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $0 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 36¢ $51 24h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 42¢ $0 30h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 8¢ $4 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 19¢ $10 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 82¢ $5 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 82¢ $6 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 84¢ $6 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.91 · official $428.91 (match) · 3500 history records