Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02b6…c449 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$15
politics 30% −$10
sports 17% −$14
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 118 +0.7% -8.9% 13% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 6% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage128d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $239 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $470 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $294 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $248 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $298 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $506 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $477 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 15 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $306 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $488 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $278 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $285 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 5h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $45 12h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $45 5d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 5d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 17d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 18d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $27 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $239 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $239 22d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 22d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 26d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 26d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $248 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $263 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $263 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $294 29d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 29d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 29d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $236 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 344 history records