Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02b6…e113 weather 862 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate84%720W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$56
14 days−$60
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% +$27
crypto 20% −$41
sports 4% −$6
other 2% −$31
world 1% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -23.9% -31.2% 53% 11% -13.9%
≤30d 733 -5.4% -14.4% 86% 4% -10.8%
≤90d 859 -3.9% -13.1% 84% 6% -9.8%
all 859 -3.9% -13.1% 84% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 6% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses720 / 139
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)859 / 862
History coverage74d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 859 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $90 $112 +$22 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $131 +$20 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $50 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $121 +$13 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 22? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.11 · official $122.11 (match) · 2423 history records