Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02b9…bbca other 10 markets active 6h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,129 (+9%) realized +$2,126 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,355per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$3,687
sports 3% +$593
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -29.6% -36.3% 14% 0% -37.4%
≤30d 8 -16.2% -24.2% 25% 12% -31.5%
≤90d 8 -16.2% -24.2% 25% 12% -31.5%
all 8 -16.2% -24.2% 25% 12% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 12% -31.5%
10% -31.4% 12% -38.0%
15% -38.1% 12% -44.0%
20% -44.1% 12% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$615 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$2,126
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2,355
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+73%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $536 −$175 -33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $7,290 −$2,291 -31%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,079 +$2 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $515 −$94 -18%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,029 −$59 -6%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,030 −$922 -90%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $513 −$151 -29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $767 +$593 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $361 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5,000 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,080 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $421 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $971 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $7,982 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $6,770 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $108 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $362 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,079 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $513 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 56¢ $1,360 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 31¢ $767 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $536 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 12d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,786 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3,076 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,054 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3,082 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,847 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5,237 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.98 · official $8.98 (match) · 39 history records