Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
02 0x02bb…d137 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$766 (-32%) realized −$804 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$475per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$979
crypto 43% +$172
sports 6% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.7% -45.5% 50% 50% -44.5%
≤30d 2 -39.7% -45.5% 50% 50% -44.5%
≤90d 2 -39.7% -45.5% 50% 50% -44.5%
all 2 -39.7% -45.5% 50% 50% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 50% -44.5%
10% -50.7% 0% -49.8%
15% -55.4% 0% -54.7%
20% -59.8% 0% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$955 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$804
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$475
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi Eva Vedder 68¢ 96¢ $149 $211 +$62 (+42%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Senegal be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 66¢ 51¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,030 +$172 +17%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $993 −$955 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi BUY Eva Vedder 68¢ $150 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,203 20h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,030 21h
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $38 22h
Will Ecuador be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $993 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.53 · official $365.77 · 7 history records