Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02bc…dce5 weather 15 markets active 1d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized −$8 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$2
weather 14% +$1
sports 6% +$2
world 3% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 42% -30.4%
≤30d 12 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 42% -30.4%
≤90d 12 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 42% -30.4%
all 12 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 42% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 42% -30.4%
10% -21.3% 42% -37.1%
15% -28.9% 33% -43.1%
20% -35.9% 25% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $91 +$11 (+14%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump say "CIA" this week? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$8 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 72¢ $6 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 46¢ $4 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 5d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 5d
Will Trump say "CIA" this week? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.63 · official $96.63 (match) · 40 history records