trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 20% | 20% | -12.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 14% | 14% | -11.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 14% | 14% | -11.8% |
| all | 7 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 14% | 14% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 14% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -20.1% | 0% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 0% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | $27 | $27 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 84¢ | 84¢ | $14 | $14 | −$0 (-1%) |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 55¢ | 50¢ | $12 | $11 | −$1 (-8%) |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 83¢ | 79¢ | $11 | $10 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 38¢ | $8 | $6 | −$2 (-25%) |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 9¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Jun 13 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $7 | −$1 | -11% |
| Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | Jun 12 | $7 | +$1 | +17% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | Jun 11 | $30 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | Jun 10 | $12 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 06 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |