Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x02bf…2c62 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$746 (+9%) realized +$1,361 · open −$615
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$613per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,991
7 days+$1,991
14 days+$1,991
30 days+$1,991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,221
sports 11% −$471
world 4% +$26
politics 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.9% +1.3% 60% 60% +40.0%
≤30d 5 +11.9% +1.3% 60% 60% +40.0%
≤90d 5 +11.9% +1.3% 60% 60% +40.0%
all 8 -30.0% -36.7% 38% 38% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 38% +17.4%
10% -42.8% 38% +6.2%
15% -48.3% 38% -4.1%
20% -53.4% 12% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$702 vs −$163 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$2,735
Realized+$1,361
Unrealized−$615
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage179d
Avg bet$613
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2,000 $1,404 −$596 (-30%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $400 $429 +$29 (+7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $250 $216 −$34 (-14%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$16 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,925 +$1,652 +86%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? Jun 20 $100 +$35 +35%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 11 $100 −$100 -100%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $199 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $409 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $488 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $510 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 25h
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Pimblett 69¢ $500 148d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 161d
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? BUY No 74¢ $100 161d
ICE shooter charged by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 163d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2,000 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,735.25 · official $2,716.20 (match) · 22 history records