Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x02bf…e89f
sports · 89 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$320 -42%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$325 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$29
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)73 / 89
History coverage59d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 15 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? No 46¢ 65¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 27¢ 81¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+195%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 89¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 71¢ 52¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 33¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes 78¢ 40¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 44¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 42¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Mumbai Indians 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? No $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2 $0 +21%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 $0 -48%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $1 +$2 +165%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2 +$1 +52%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $5 $0 +10%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $5 $0 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1 +$1 +57%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -85%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $3 +$2 +59%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $1 $0 +40%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $2 +$1 +60%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $6 $0 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +5%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $1 $0 +14%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $11 +$2 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $8 −$1 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on May 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $2 −$2 -89%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 58% −$400
sports 18% +$2
world 12% +$83
other 8% +$2
tech 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 15m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 15m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $0 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 79¢ $1 36h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $4 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $1 3d
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $1 3d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $1 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 68¢ $1 5d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 82¢ $2 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $1 13d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $5 13d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 65¢ $2 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.2% -20.5% 56% 44% -11.2%
≤30d 45 -15.8% -23.8% 53% 38% -8.0%
≤90d 73 -17.8% -25.6% 49% 38% -51.0%
all 73 -17.8% -25.6% 49% 38% -51.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 38% -51.0%
10% -32.8% 26% -55.7%
15% -39.3% 25% -60.0%
20% -45.2% 21% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.32 · official $30.30 (match) · 180 history records