Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02c6…b27b sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate64%58W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$134
14 days−$151
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$143
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 9% -10.7%
≤30d 90 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 11% -10.8%
≤90d 90 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 11% -10.8%
all 90 -5.7% -14.7% 64% 11% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 11% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 3% -19.3%
15% -30.3% 1% -27.1%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses58 / 32
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage15d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $811 +$9 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $366 +$1 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $698 +$10 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $933 +$2 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $609 +$9 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $248 +$64 +26%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $191 +$5 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $448 +$7 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $165 −$11 -6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $351 +$3 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $297 +$5 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $260 −$13 -5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$4 -4%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $59 −$1 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $204 −$97 -48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $433 +$1 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $367 +$4 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$2 -2%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $302 −$92 -31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $165 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $40 −$2 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $413 +$10 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $113 +$2 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $102 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $254 −$15 -6%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $191 −$34 -18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 +$5 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$23 +45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $362 −$35 -10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $114 +$6 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 +$2 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $105 +$2 +2%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $110 −$1 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $28 +$5 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 +$2 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $106 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $6 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $13 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $53 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $13 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 90¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 84¢ $99 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 82¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 82¢ $91 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 82¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 64¢ $6 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $6 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 54¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 54¢ $76 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 54¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 54¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $85 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 46¢ $99 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 46¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 46¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 58¢ $30 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 791 history records