Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02c8…649d other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 94L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
politics 24% −$3
sports 5% +$13
economics 5% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 107 -1.3% -10.7% 12% 9% -9.5%
all 107 -1.3% -10.7% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 9% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 8% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage90d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $122 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $127 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $210 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $386 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $326 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $103 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 13h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $21 37h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $21 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $4 45h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 4d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $72 5d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 7d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.91 · official $98.91 (match) · 287 history records