Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02c9…ccab crypto 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,897 (-3%) realized −$1,897 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate70%93W / 39L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$2,256
weather 18% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.3% -1.1% 86% 57% -2.1%
≤30d 7 +9.3% -1.1% 86% 57% -2.1%
≤90d 132 -4.6% -13.6% 70% 19% -13.1%
all 132 -4.6% -13.6% 70% 19% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 19% -13.1%
10% -21.9% 11% -21.4%
15% -29.5% 5% -29.0%
20% -36.4% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$612) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$148 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,897
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses93 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage70d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $92 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$26 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 11 $104 −$76 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 11 $104 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11? May 11 $738 −$13 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11? May 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 10? May 09 $173 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 10? May 09 $288 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 9? May 09 $266 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on May 9? May 09 $65 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 08 $402 +$36 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 08 $305 +$96 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 08 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 08 $181 +$134 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 08 $612 −$489 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 08 $716 +$243 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 26 $69 −$43 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 25 $260 −$28 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 25 $468 −$358 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 25 $383 −$383 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 25 $500 −$392 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 25 $400 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 25 $300 −$110 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 25 $465 −$246 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 26? Apr 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or higher on April 26? Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 27? Apr 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or below on April 26? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on April 26? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on April 26? Apr 25 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 25 $700 −$573 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 25 $847 −$7 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 25 $300 +$132 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 25 $598 +$120 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 25 $391 −$391 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 26? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C or below on April 27 Apr 25 $132 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 26? Apr 25 $476 −$15 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 25 $298 +$93 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 25 $299 +$174 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 25 $308 +$90 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 25 $600 +$243 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 25 $596 +$94 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $14 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $28 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $108 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 42d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11? SELL No 97¢ $725 42d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $395 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 10? SELL No 100¢ $174 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 10? SELL No 100¢ $290 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $333 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $173 45d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $20 45d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $268 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $402 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $401 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $305 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $317 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $301 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 555 history records