Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02ce…e128 other 111 markets active 2d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,337 (-2%) realized −$2,335 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%23W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,109per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$19
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$1,819
politics 33% −$46
sports 8% −$477
world 3% −$4
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -19.3% -27.0% 8% 3% -12.1%
all 110 -5.7% -14.6% 21% 12% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 12% -11.3%
10% -22.8% 12% -19.7%
15% -30.3% 7% -27.5%
20% -37.1% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,642) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$35 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized−$2,335
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses23 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,109
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $607 $605 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $3,908 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,750 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,886 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,909 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,977 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,605 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $473 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,714 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,744 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,580 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,957 −$4 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $525 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $3,853 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,093 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,736 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,188 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3,068 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,110 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $5,549 −$6 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,660 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $5,657 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $3,739 −$5 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $799 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $925 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $1,932 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $607 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,089 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,091 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $544 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $545 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,086 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,092 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,094 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,092 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,093 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,016 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,017 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $992 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $993 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $965 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $966 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $880 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $881 15d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $556 18d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $557 18d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $579 21d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $580 21d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $469 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.41 · official $605.41 (match) · 403 history records