Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02cf…813c crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$867 (-4%) realized −$888 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate70%80W / 35L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$132
14 days−$132
30 days−$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$531
sports 6% −$225
other 5% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -66.0% -69.2% 0% 0% -63.1%
≤30d 5 -86.4% -87.7% 0% 0% -83.1%
≤90d 5 -86.4% -87.7% 0% 0% -83.1%
all 115 -9.0% -17.7% 70% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 44% -13.4%
10% -25.5% 20% -21.7%
15% -32.7% 9% -29.3%
20% -39.3% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% too few recent
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$105 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$723
Realized−$888
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses80 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage110d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? No 81¢ 84¢ $590 $611 +$21 (+4%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Australia 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 20 $91 −$90 -99%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $133 −$43 -32%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $88 −$87 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 01 $98 −$96 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 10 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 10 $20 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 10 $24 +$31 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 10 $76 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 10 $107 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 10 $99 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 10 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 10 $130 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 10 $210 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 10 $280 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 10 $255 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 10 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 09 $100 −$81 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 09 $200 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 09 $188 +$55 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 09 $310 +$59 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 09 $300 +$111 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 09 $374 +$106 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 09 $988 +$132 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 09 $300 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 09 $1,092 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 09 $60 +$28 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 09 $126 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 09 $110 +$35 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 09 $137 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 09 $120 +$35 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 09 $162 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 09 $100 +$89 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 09 $188 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 09 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 09 $200 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 09 $200 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 09 $200 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 09 $200 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 09 $181 −$181 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 09 $1,132 −$1,132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $103 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $593 8h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 88¢ $10 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $91 5d
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $133 17d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $88 24d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 38¢ $98 24d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $80 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $55 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $145 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $110 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $89 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $97 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $120 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $76 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.95 · official $731.70 · 971 history records