Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02d1…9eac other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$10
politics 15% −$2
tech 11% +$66
crypto 9% −$2
economics 6% −$1
world 2% −$14
culture 1% −$39
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 +1.0% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 32 +1.6% -8.1% 31% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$825) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage203d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $108 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 12 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 08 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 08 $592 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $186 −$9 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 08 $97 −$4 -5%
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut wee Mar 07 $132 −$39 -29%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $143 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $283 +$3 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $3 $0 +9%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 12 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $137 +$5 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $129 +$9 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $68 +$38 +56%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 30 $61 +$7 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $105 1h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $105 2h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $110 26h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $110 42h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $108 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $992 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $994 36d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $993 36d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $994 36d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $995 36d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $996 36d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $993 36d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $995 36d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $998 36d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 36d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $999 36d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 36d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,001 36d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,003 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $106 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $106 60d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $591 70d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $591 70d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $591 70d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $592 70d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $92 87d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $92 92d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $92 92d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $92 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.64 · official $106.64 (match) · 86 history records