Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02d3…5554 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$900 (+13%) realized +$1,110 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$229
14 days+$480
30 days+$1,013
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$124
sports 21% +$660
crypto 3% +$115
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -23.3% -30.6% 39% 29% +0.1%
≤30d 51 -22.5% -29.9% 43% 35% +11.8%
≤90d 51 -22.5% -29.9% 43% 35% +11.8%
all 52 -12.6% -21.0% 44% 37% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 37% +13.8%
10% -28.5% 29% +2.9%
15% -35.4% 25% -7.0%
20% -41.8% 19% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$21 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$2,114
Realized+$1,110
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions8
Markets (closed)52 / 60
History coverage148d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,665 $1,342 −$323 (-19%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 90¢ $200 $251 +$51 (+26%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 82¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$92 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$56 -37%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$69 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$114 +56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$66 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $31 −$20 -64%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 +$28 +137%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $31 +$2 +6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$19 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$45 -64%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$115 +75%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $31 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $31 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$7 -32%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 +$157 +256%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 −$14 -24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$23 +113%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$56 +18%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $335 +$149 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$125 +41%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $102 +$15 +15%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $387 +$325 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $244 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $70 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $201 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $317 31h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $117 3d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 3d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 30¢ $45 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $97 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,114.50 · official $2,111.67 (match) · 194 history records