trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 20% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 22 | -19.6% | -27.3% | 32% | 9% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.3% | 9% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -34.2% | 9% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -40.6% | 5% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -46.4% | 5% | -34.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $339 | $339 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $200 | $200 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $181 | $181 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+18%) |
| Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+14%) |
| Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 11 | $80 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 11 | $140 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? | Apr 15 | $220 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 15 | $360 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Apr 15 | $155 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Feb 21 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th | Jan 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? | Jan 23 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the announcers say "Penalty" or "Flag" 30+ times during Lions vs | Oct 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | Oct 09 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | Oct 09 | $6 | −$1 | -24% |
| Will Trump attend UFC 319? | Sep 02 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Will Drake's "Which One" debut at #1 in its first week? | Jul 26 | $4 | −$3 | -70% |
| Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? | Jul 10 | $4 | −$3 | -76% |
| Will 'Balatro' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards? | May 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will America ban Zyn in 2024? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Nov 30 | $131 | $0 | -0% |
| Will a Republican win South Dakota Presidential Election? | Nov 28 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Manchester United beat Tottenham? | Oct 10 | $12 | +$8 | +70% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | Sep 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will a Democrat win Maryland Presidential Election? | Sep 25 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | Aug 26 | $766 | −$16 | -2% |