Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02db…8ce2 crypto 1369 markets active 5h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%826W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$524
14 days−$524
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 607 -77.6% -79.7% 17% 2% -73.1%
≤30d 1211 -11.1% -19.5% 57% 49% -20.5%
≤90d 1369 -4.1% -13.2% 60% 53% -13.4%
all 1369 -4.1% -13.2% 60% 53% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 53% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 53% -21.6%
15% -29.1% 53% -29.2%
20% -36.1% 39% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses826 / 543
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1369 / 1369
History coverage51d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1369 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3209 history records