Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02dc…b9c9 sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$311 (+4%) realized +$337 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate71%95W / 38L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$154
14 days+$118
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$199
other 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +5.9% -4.2% 71% 57% -5.8%
≤30d 133 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 51% -6.9%
≤90d 133 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 51% -6.9%
all 133 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 51% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 51% -6.9%
10% -18.4% 33% -15.8%
15% -26.3% 20% -23.9%
20% -33.5% 14% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$30 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$337
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses95 / 38
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage24d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 60¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$37 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $201 −$103 -51%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $502 +$80 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $201 +$43 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $303 +$114 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $202 +$42 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $301 +$18 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$125 +62%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $100 −$62 -61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$8 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$19 +91%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$13 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $41 −$1 -3%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $51 +$10 +19%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $7 +$2 +29%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $8 +$4 +45%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $130 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $50 +$7 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $202 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $341 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $304 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $582 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $502 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $201 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $303 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $98 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $101 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $0 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $19 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $244 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $319 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 94¢ $301 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $328 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 48¢ $59 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $39 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $20 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $202 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.91 · official $173.91 (match) · 313 history records