Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
02 0x02dd…492b sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$496
7 days−$35
14 days−$26
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$56
sports 35% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +6.2% -3.9% 40% 40% -10.0%
≤30d 57 -5.5% -14.5% 39% 39% -10.3%
≤90d 57 -5.5% -14.5% 39% 39% -10.3%
all 57 -5.5% -14.5% 39% 39% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 39% -10.3%
10% -22.7% 37% -18.9%
15% -30.1% 30% -26.7%
20% -37.0% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$94 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage20d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $320 $312 −$8 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $312 +$101 +32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $408 −$400 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $289 +$203 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 −$350 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $767 +$304 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $585 +$262 +45%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $820 +$199 +24%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$323 +316%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $68 +$189 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$6 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $162 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $162 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 30h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $312 39h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $408 42h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $289 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $352 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $767 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $307 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $211 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $222 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $609 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.80 · official $611.83 (match) · 104 history records