Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
02 0x02e2…2312 politics 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% -8.5%
≤30d 2 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% -8.5%
≤90d 2 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% -8.5%
all 2 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 50% -8.5%
10% -13.7% 50% -17.2%
15% -22.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -29.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 98¢ 93¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 89¢ 58¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 19¢ 18¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 21 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.27 · official $76.27 (match) · 9 history records