Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02e2…8813 crypto 263 markets active 4h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%142W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$40
14 days+$24
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$132
sports 1% +$112
other 1% −$69
world 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.4% -28.0% 46% 38% -2.8%
≤30d 57 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 23% -9.6%
≤90d 262 -15.5% -23.6% 54% 31% -9.8%
all 262 -15.5% -23.6% 54% 31% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 31% -9.8%
10% -30.9% 14% -18.4%
15% -37.6% 10% -26.3%
20% -43.7% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses142 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)262 / 263
History coverage84d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $109 +$31 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 −$8 -15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $900 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3,300 −$4 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $300 −$2 -0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs My Queen (BO1) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $900 −$1 -0%
Valorant: ARETE vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Sea Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 1-7? Jun 05 $300 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $600 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 05 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $600 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $1 −$1 -69%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,200 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group C May 30 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +7%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 29 $4,200 −$5 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 28 $5,900 −$7 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 163NEWS (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group B May 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $300 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions May 26 $1 $0 +18%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $2 $0 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $300 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 20 $2,100 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $109 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $25 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $19 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $45 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $299 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $299 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 780 history records