trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $105 | $105 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 0¢ | $242 | $0 | −$242 (-100%) |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 99¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 14 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca | Jun 05 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 03 | $102 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24? | May 24 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? | May 23 | $107 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? | May 22 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? | May 19 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 17 | $102 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | May 05 | $102 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? | Apr 21 | $102 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Apr 04 | $99 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Apr 01 | $98 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Mar 25 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Mar 25 | $106 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 20 | $242 | −$242 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 20 | $240 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 16 | $235 | +$6 | +2% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | Mar 08 | $231 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? | Mar 07 | $229 | +$3 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 100% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 100% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 83% | 0% | -23.6% |
| all | 20 | -14.2% | -22.4% | 85% | 0% | -20.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.4% | 0% | -20.9% |
| 10% | -29.8% | 0% | -28.4% |
| 15% | -36.6% | 0% | -35.4% |
| 20% | -42.8% | 0% | -41.7% |