Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02e6…17ef crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-9%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$14
sports 20% −$6
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 28% -23.3%
≤30d 40 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 28% -23.3%
≤90d 40 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 28% -23.3%
all 40 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 28% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 28% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 20% -30.7%
15% -37.0% 12% -37.4%
20% -43.2% 5% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 69¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records