Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02eb…141a crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%38W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$6
crypto 9% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses38 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage535d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 02 $49 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $15 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 27 $5,723 −$6 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 11 $17 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +2%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $12 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 09 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 61d
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 91d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $47 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $6 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $20 181d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $39 182d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 211d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $15 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $28 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 333d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $30 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 363d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 364d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 395d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 395d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5,717 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.75 · official $53.75 (match) · 100 history records