Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x02ee…f4b4 crypto 41 markets active 6d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-7%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$4
other 24% −$2
world 4% $0
finance 3% $0
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 3 -68.8% -71.8% 0% 0% -27.8%
≤90d 3 -68.8% -71.8% 0% 0% -27.8%
all 41 -23.0% -30.4% 32% 27% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 27% -16.3%
10% -37.0% 24% -24.3%
15% -43.1% 20% -31.6%
20% -48.7% 15% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage102d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $1 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 01 $2 $0 -20%
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 01 $1 $0 -10%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 01 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 01 $3 +$4 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 01 $4 +$5 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "N-Word" in February? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 01 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 01 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 01 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 01 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $1 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $1 105d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 105d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? SELL Up 12¢ $0 107d
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 107d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 107d
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 107d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? SELL Down 87¢ $1 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records