Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02ee…9eea sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,349 (-70%) realized −$2,337 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$27
14 days−$23
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,925
crypto 10% −$332
other 8% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 45% -35.5%
≤30d 32 -27.2% -34.2% 41% 41% -22.1%
≤90d 32 -27.2% -34.2% 41% 41% -22.1%
all 37 -30.6% -37.2% 38% 38% -76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 38% -76.5%
10% -43.3% 38% -78.8%
15% -48.7% 38% -80.8%
20% -53.8% 27% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$121 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$2,337
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage453d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $95 $85 −$10 (-11%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $7 +$3 +46%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $14 −$14 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 −$18 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$5 +108%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 +$5 +108%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$3 -57%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 +$6 +67%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $45 +$55 +122%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $7 +$3 +44%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$5 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 +$4 +61%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 +$7 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 +$3 +53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $18 −$17 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup? Dec 20 $237 +$328 +138%
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 07 $332 −$332 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 22 $848 −$848 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $48 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 16h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 43h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 44h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 44h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 44h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 2d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $14 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $8 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 68¢ $7 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 58¢ $10 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 21¢ $2 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $5 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.12 · official $172.12 (match) · 87 history records