trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 85¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 12 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $26 | +$1 | +3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $38 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 09 | $38 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $85 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 05 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Dec 12 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? | May 22 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele | May 13 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 11 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | May 10 | $15 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 05 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? | Apr 02 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Mar 31 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 43% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 30% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 30% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 24 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 46% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.3% |