Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:37:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02f0…1a03 sports 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$638 (+10%) realized +$643 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%26W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$89
14 days−$277
30 days+$962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$1,382
other 36% −$697
world 2% −$95
crypto 1% +$60
tech 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.1% -11.4% 12% 12% -4.7%
≤30d 133 -21.6% -29.1% 16% 15% +17.1%
≤90d 159 -20.5% -28.1% 16% 16% +1.1%
all 159 -20.5% -28.1% 16% 16% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 16% +1.1%
10% -35.0% 15% -8.6%
15% -41.2% 14% -17.4%
20% -47.0% 12% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$24 · ×6.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$815
Realized+$643
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses26 / 133
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions18
Markets (closed)159 / 187
History coverage77d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $73 $136 +$63 (+87%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $147 $135 −$12 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $119 $122 +$3 (+2%)
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $90 $99 +$10 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $53 $79 +$25 (+48%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $56 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+27%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $12 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 29¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 3¢ 0¢ $68 $1 −$67 (-99%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026- Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw a Jun 21 $10 +$75 +734%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $12 +$288 +2458%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +967%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 0¢ $3 6m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 7¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 16¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $221 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $54 3h
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $73 4h
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 22h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 27h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND J BUY 30¢ $38 28h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 35h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 36h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 37h
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 38h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 38h
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $815.25 · official $816.96 (match) · 666 history records