Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x02f1…6109 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$228 (+11%) realized +$187 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$88
other 32% +$116
crypto 6% +$42
world 5% +$5
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 2 +272.1% +236.7% 100% 100% +163.2%
≤90d 4 +125.7% +104.2% 75% 75% +49.8%
all 39 +21.7% +10.1% 54% 49% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 49% +0.2%
10% -0.4% 49% -9.4%
15% -10.0% 46% -18.1%
20% -18.9% 46% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$48 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$187
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage227d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$25 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$72 +474%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $72 −$38 -53%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $100 +$59 +59%
Spread: Rockets (-10.5) Jan 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Heat vs. Suns Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Jan 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 25 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jan 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-7.5) Jan 23 $75 +$75 +100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jan 22 $26 +$67 +257%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jan 21 $101 +$97 +96%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jan 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) Jan 19 $52 +$44 +85%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $213 +$189 +89%
Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 Jan 17 $141 +$72 +51%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jan 10 $25 +$23 +92%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jan 10 $15 +$50 +335%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jan 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jan 04 $15 +$35 +233%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jan 04 $24 +$37 +156%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Nov 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Nov 27 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $20 +$25 +127%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $6 +$2 +33%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Nov 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $20 +$19 +96%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $20 +$13 +66%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 17¢ $15 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 16¢ $12 32d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 14¢ $46 32d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 17¢ $19 32d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 22¢ $26 32d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 117d
Spread: Rockets (-10.5) BUY Rockets 45¢ $50 148d
Heat vs. Suns BUY Suns 52¢ $50 149d
Spread: Suns (-3.5) BUY Suns 53¢ $130 149d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $150 149d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 150d
Lakers vs. Clippers BUY Lakers 45¢ $69 152d
Spread: Pistons (-7.5) BUY Pistons 50¢ $75 153d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY FC Barcelona 28¢ $26 153d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Lakers 51¢ $101 154d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Pistons 48¢ $11 155d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Pistons 48¢ $100 155d
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) SELL Lakers 100¢ $96 155d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 155d
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) BUY Lakers 54¢ $52 156d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 156d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $65 156d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 156d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $213 157d
Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $213 157d
Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $141 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL No 80¢ $105 162d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.79 · official $140.79 (match) · 89 history records