Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

02 0x02f8…9712 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$2,194 (-7%) realized −$2,194 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR16%break-even

Win rate88%22W / 3L

Whale WR71%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,213per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$695

7 days−$2,117

14 days−$2,039

30 days−$2,039

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +16%

net ROI/market (all)-12.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-6.0%	-15.0%	87%	13%	-16.1%
≤30d	25	-3.7%	-12.8%	88%	16%	-15.6%
≤90d	25	-3.7%	-12.8%	88%	16%	-15.6%
all	25	-3.7%	-12.8%	88%	16%	-15.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.8%	16%	-15.6%
10%	-21.2%	4%	-23.7%
15%	-28.8%	4%	-31.1%
20%	-35.8%	0%	-37.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,416) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +3% → late -9% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$1,315 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$2,194

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses22 / 3

Whale WR (big bets)71%

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 25

History coverage8d

Avg bet$1,213

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$1,528	+$112	+7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,416	+$113	+8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,401	+$14	+1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,307	+$95	+7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,242	+$63	+5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,157	+$85	+7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,053	+$106	+10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,020	+$33	+3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$946	+$74	+8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$891	+$55	+6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$2,057	−$2,052	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1,797	+$258	+14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$431	−$424	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,901	−$1,469	-77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1,793	+$105	+6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1,605	+$178	+11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1,382	+$235	+17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$601	+$18	+3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$1,263	+$99	+8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,191	+$74	+6%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$1,145	+$46	+4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5	Jun 12	$1,112	+$32	+3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5	Jun 12	$1,080	+$32	+3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5	Jun 11	$899	+$32	+4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$104	+$45	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	93¢	$1,528	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	100¢	$1,529	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	92¢	$1,416	3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	99¢	$1,401	3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	93¢	$1,307	8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	95¢	$1,242	27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$1,157	31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	91¢	$1,053	44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	97¢	$1,020	46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,021	46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	92¢	$946	47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	94¢	$891	2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	93¢	$2,057	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$2,055	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	87¢	$1,797	3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$431	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	18¢	$184	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	25¢	$248	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$1,901	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$1,793	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$1,783	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	90¢	$1,605	4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$1,617	4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	85¢	$1,382	5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	99¢	$619	5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	96¢	$601	5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,362	5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	92¢	$1,263	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$1,265	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	94¢	$1,191	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records