Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02f8…df25 sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%79W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$70
14 days+$21
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$37
other 2% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -7.0% -15.9% 60% 52% -13.0%
≤30d 113 +13.5% +2.7% 65% 58% -6.0%
≤90d 128 +6.8% -3.3% 62% 55% -10.3%
all 128 +6.8% -3.3% 62% 55% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 55% -10.3%
10% -12.6% 45% -18.9%
15% -21.0% 27% -26.7%
20% -28.8% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$29 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses79 / 49
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage46d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 72¢ 70¢ $88 $85 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $116 +$3 +2%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $40 −$20 -49%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $40 +$24 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $20 +$6 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $40 −$7 -18%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $40 +$16 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $40 +$14 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $41 −$11 -28%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $20 +$10 +47%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $30 +$13 +42%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $61 −$5 -8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $50 −$16 -32%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $60 +$25 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$26 -87%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $61 +$23 +38%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $30 +$11 +36%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $50 −$11 -22%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $40 +$9 +23%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $64 +$32 +50%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $55 +$9 +17%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $48 +$7 +15%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $41 +$6 +16%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $38 +$4 +10%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $32 +$6 +18%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $77 −$18 -24%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $70 +$8 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $111 −$80 -72%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $30 −$11 -37%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $81 +$30 +37%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $30 +$11 +38%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $60 +$12 +20%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $50 +$21 +42%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $30 +$12 +40%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $30 +$13 +41%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 73¢ $13 4m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 70¢ $24 5m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 99¢ $37 6m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 73¢ $52 18m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 80¢ $30 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 79¢ $82 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $86 4h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Las Vegas Aces 71¢ $86 5h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 73¢ $38 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $10 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $10 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $11 11h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 69¢ $30 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $10 12h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $10 12h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $50 12h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 77¢ $20 12h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $40 14h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 56¢ $19 16h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 68¢ $10 16h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 49¢ $10 16h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 65¢ $10 16h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $30 22h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 78¢ $20 36h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 82¢ $20 37h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Rebeka Masarova 19¢ $9 37h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Rebeka Masarova 43¢ $5 37h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Rebeka Masarova 42¢ $10 37h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Rebeka Masarova 38¢ $5 38h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 71¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.35 · official $87.18 · 345 history records