Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x02fe…5af0 weather 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%55W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$88
14 days−$81
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$21
weather 29% −$421
culture 16% −$86
other 11% −$28
world 4% +$28
crypto 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -77.7% -79.8% 16% 9% -29.8%
≤30d 55 -63.7% -67.2% 25% 18% -25.3%
≤90d 117 -39.2% -45.0% 29% 23% -45.1%
all 148 -25.3% -32.4% 37% 30% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 30% -39.2%
10% -38.8% 26% -45.0%
15% -44.8% 22% -50.3%
20% -50.2% 18% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses55 / 93
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 114
History coverage122d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on May 8? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 8? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 8? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 12? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12? Jun 19 $2 +$32 +1926%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $61 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $45 +$23 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$27 -88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $77 +$35 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $29 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $31 −$8 -26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $75 +$18 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $59 +$4 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $60 +$20 +33%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 59¢ $31 12m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 29¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 38¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 18¢ $13 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 18¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 18¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 17¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 60¢ $36 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 60¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 60¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 60¢ $4 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 25¢ $8 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 25¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 17¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 17¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 17¢ $29 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $15 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $15 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $21 43h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 45h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 25¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 12¢ $17 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 17¢ $31 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 17¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 546 history records