Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x02ff…b3eb other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$202 (+0%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 105L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$816per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$12
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$134
politics 39% −$51
sports 17% +$376
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -14.2% -22.4% 6% 1% -10.8%
all 131 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 12% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 12% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 11% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$990) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$13 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage129d
Avg bet$816
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $531 $531 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $409 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,905 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $858 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $962 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $888 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $386 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $1,402 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,611 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $598 +$2 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $279 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $872 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,669 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $623 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $407 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $407 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $409 44h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $409 45h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $408 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $408 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $532 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $917 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $918 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $825 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $826 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $846 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $820 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $821 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $859 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $860 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $711 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $712 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $960 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $962 16d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $886 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $888 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $694 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $695 17d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $592 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.19 · official $531.19 (match) · 421 history records