Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0305…0c9c world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate42%31W / 42L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
politics 16% $0
sports 12% $0
other 12% +$1
crypto 11% +$3
economics 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 21 -2.2% -11.5% 24% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -2.2% -11.5% 24% 0% -9.7%
all 73 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage303d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $14 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $17 −$3 -18%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $86 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 22 $34 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $92 −$3 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $42 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $69 +$6 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 01 $6 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $4 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 17 $4 $0 -5%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $30 $0 -1%
Will Ayo Edebiri win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Sep 16 $1 $0 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $10 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 13h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $15 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $27 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $40 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $43 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $42 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records