Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x030b…8012 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$269 (+4%) realized +$269 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$16
14 days−$17
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$4
crypto 33% +$2
sports 6% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -54.7% -59.0% 11% 11% -10.2%
≤30d 26 -33.0% -39.4% 19% 12% -5.8%
≤90d 26 -33.0% -39.4% 19% 12% -5.8%
all 26 -33.0% -39.4% 19% 12% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 12% -5.8%
10% -45.2% 12% -14.8%
15% -50.5% 12% -23.0%
20% -55.3% 8% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$2 · ×30.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.95 per $1 lost it wins $7.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage21d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $102 −$3 -2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $22 +$10 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $15 +$10 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $830 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $320 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $320 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $360 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $220 +$280 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $570 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $465 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $500 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $570 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $100 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $102 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $22 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down $0 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up $0 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up $0 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up $0 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up $0 31h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $31 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $320 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $479 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $480 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $320 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records