Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x030c…c4e5 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+12%) realized +$24 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$33
other 43% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.8% -24.8% 27% 27% +3.7%
≤30d 30 -16.8% -24.8% 27% 27% +3.7%
≤90d 30 -16.8% -24.8% 27% 27% +3.7%
all 30 -16.8% -24.8% 27% 27% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 27% +3.7%
10% -32.0% 27% -6.2%
15% -38.5% 27% -15.3%
20% -44.6% 20% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 57¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+27%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 81¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+54%)
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $22 +$15 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $11 −$10 -89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$9 -50%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $37 +$28 +74%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 +$7 +101%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 +$10 +982%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$17 +86%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 +$11 +40%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +299%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$22 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $11 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $1 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $11 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $9 6h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $7 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 27h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $7 30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $7 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.52 · official $36.15 (match) · 50 history records