Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
03 0x0313…67db politics 771 markets active 2h ago coverage 631d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 630d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,168 (+12%) realized +$2,134 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%366W / 390L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days+$832
14 days+$675
30 days+$1,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$2,131
other 22% +$431
politics 21% +$280
crypto 18% −$665
sports 4% +$259
finance 2% −$99
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% +$11
culture 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -44.0% -49.4% 33% 33% +14.8%
≤30d 77 -29.7% -36.4% 32% 29% +9.4%
≤90d 234 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 43% +18.0%
all 756 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 43% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 43% +2.1%
10% -18.1% 36% -7.6%
15% -26.0% 30% -16.6%
20% -33.3% 25% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$2,134
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses366 / 390
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)756 / 771
History coverage631d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $52 $86 +$34 (+65%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $45 +$29 +64%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $171 −$144 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $135 +$59 +44%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $2,082 +$1,459 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $17 −$16 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +32%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $36 −$16 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $89 −$51 -58%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $60 −$59 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $97 +$48 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $182 −$30 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $43 −$13 -30%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -68%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +64%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 +$122 +110%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Elephant" in May? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the second highest grossing movie of Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$49 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $67 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 2¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea Republ BUY 2¢ $3 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $73 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $45 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 46¢ $5 11h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $27 14h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $45 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $135 28h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $67 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.38 · official $158.36 · 3500 history records