Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0314…0532 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$11 (-7%) realized +$25 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 33% -18.3%
≤30d 3 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 33% -18.3%
≤90d 3 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 33% -18.3%
all 3 -39.2% -45.0% 33% 33% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 33% -18.3%
10% -50.2% 33% -26.1%
15% -55.0% 33% -33.2%
20% -59.5% 33% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$30 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage5d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 2¢ $37 $1 −$36 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $59 +$48 +82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $38 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $20 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $107 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $45 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $14 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.42 · official $1.42 (match) · 6 history records