Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x0317…9583 weather 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%46W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 41 +0.1% -9.5% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 49 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 2% -9.5%
all 49 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses46 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage42d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $238 $238 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 25 $224 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? Jun 24 $436 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 23 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 22 $352 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $433 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $133 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $433 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $357 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $432 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $276 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $333 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $431 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $429 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 08 $384 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $417 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $412 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 2? Jun 03 $412 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 1? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29? Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? Jun 01 $291 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $125 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? May 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 27? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $283 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 27? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $390 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? May 26 $382 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $15 −$8 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? May 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? May 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 42m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $238 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $217 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $273 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $135 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $166 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $264 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $146 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $206 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $433 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $42 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $126 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $433 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $357 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $17 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $58 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $432 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.37 · official $340.37 (match) · 160 history records