Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0319…4120 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$97 (+11%) realized +$102 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%9W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$234
14 days+$234
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$137
crypto 3% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +11.3% +0.7% 15% 15% +1.1%
≤30d 48 +11.3% +0.7% 15% 15% +1.1%
≤90d 65 -2.3% -11.6% 14% 14% -17.0%
all 65 -2.3% -11.6% 14% 14% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 14% -17.0%
10% -20.1% 14% -24.9%
15% -27.8% 12% -32.2%
20% -34.9% 12% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$10 · ×7.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses9 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)65 / 83
History coverage69d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $14 +$108 +751%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $3 −$1 -29%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $4 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 +$8 +155%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $2 +$1 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $8 +$49 +596%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $4 +$275 +7629%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $2 +$20 +953%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $3 +$3 +92%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $18 −$18 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 3h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.76 · official $47.91 · 143 history records