Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x031a…1dc1 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$889 (+9%) realized +$889 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%85W / 34L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day110.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,356
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +10.9% +0.3% 71% 63% +2.6%
≤30d 119 +10.9% +0.3% 71% 63% +2.6%
≤90d 119 +10.9% +0.3% 71% 63% +2.6%
all 119 +10.9% +0.3% 71% 63% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 63% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 48% -7.2%
15% -18.0% 32% -16.1%
20% -26.1% 23% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$889
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses85 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage4d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day110.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $135 +$63 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $66 +$33 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$19 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$53 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $85 −$84 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $77 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$17 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $131 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$31 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $49 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $63 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$43 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $48 −$15 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $43 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $277 +$56 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$37 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $67 −$34 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $44 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$20 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $318 +$215 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$3 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$4 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$35 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $214 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$39 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $89 −$23 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $22 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $84 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$15 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $19 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $17 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $22 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $17 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $29 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 515 history records