Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x031d…87d1 weather 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$501 (-7%) realized −$501 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate50%72W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 30% +$23
politics 25% −$264
other 23% −$301
world 10% −$186
tech 5% +$120
finance 4% +$25
sports 3% +$8
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 24 +50.1% +35.8% 62% 29% +40.7%
≤90d 95 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 27% -16.1%
all 144 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 24% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 24% -16.8%
10% -24.5% 15% -24.7%
15% -31.8% 10% -32.0%
20% -38.5% 7% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses72 / 72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage135d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $24 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $12 +$35 +295%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $0 $0 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? May 24 $11 +$122 +1094%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 24? May 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $28 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? May 21 $24 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $1 +$1 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 17? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 17? May 19 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 14? May 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 14? May 14 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 12? May 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 11? May 11 $4 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? May 11 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? May 11 $103 −$101 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 11? May 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11? May 11 $24 +$8 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $1 +$5 +488%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 10? May 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 10? May 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 8? May 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 7? May 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 7? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $19 −$9 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 6? May 06 $0 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 6? May 06 $0 $0 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 6? May 06 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $56 −$24 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 6? May 06 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3? May 03 $6 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 42¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 47¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL No 39¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? SELL No 46¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? SELL No 47¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? SELL No 47¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? SELL No 47¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? BUY No 45¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL No 47¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL No 47¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL No 47¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 45¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4? SELL No 31¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 33¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $47 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.88 (match) · 581 history records