Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x031f…c400 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,675 (+6%) realized +$2,675 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate80%61W / 15L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$586per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$492
7 days+$1,454
14 days+$1,942
30 days+$2,199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,446
other 15% +$753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.9% -14.0% 79% 28% -5.0%
≤30d 76 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 36% -5.0%
≤90d 76 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 36% -5.0%
all 76 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 36% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 36% -5.0%
10% -20.4% 17% -14.1%
15% -28.1% 5% -22.4%
20% -35.2% 1% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$932) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$156 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,675
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses61 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage27d
Avg bet$586
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $380 −$378 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $791 +$88 +11%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $1,004 +$138 +14%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $2,024 +$126 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $1,987 +$38 +2%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $618 −$610 -99%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,501 +$30 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $1,502 +$75 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $1,469 +$146 +10%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $1,790 +$149 +8%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $504 +$209 +41%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $995 +$320 +32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $685 +$166 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $1,001 +$34 +3%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $1,285 −$95 -7%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $991 +$72 +7%
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $1,001 +$43 +4%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 26 $1,206 +$369 +31%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $995 +$196 +20%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $932 +$58 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $1,818 +$112 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $1,736 +$67 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $951 +$19 +2%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $699 +$35 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $825 −$2 -0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $751 +$148 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $438 +$149 +34%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $358 +$82 +23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,993 +$463 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $144 +$57 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$24 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$21 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $146 +$9 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $109 +$37 +34%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $105 +$4 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $97 +$4 +4%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $328 −$325 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $355 +$70 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $331 +$24 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $330 −$329 -100%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $629 +$32 +5%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $610 +$20 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $184 +$27 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 78¢ $380 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $879 3h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 89¢ $791 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 88¢ $1,004 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $2,149 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 94¢ $1,022 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 94¢ $1,002 26h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $2,025 26h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 98¢ $1,987 26h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 57¢ $618 36h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $1,578 39h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 95¢ $1,502 39h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,501 40h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $1,615 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $51 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 91¢ $1,469 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $1,939 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $714 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $1,315 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 75¢ $995 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 92¢ $1,790 2d
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 75¢ $679 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 97¢ $1,001 2d
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Hernan Casanova 33¢ $291 2d
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 67¢ $606 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $685 2d
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 100¢ $1,044 2d
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 96¢ $1,001 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records