Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x0320…3757 sports 697 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,795 (-2%) realized −$2,712 · open −$83
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate72%497W / 191L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$354est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$494
7 days+$675
14 days+$618
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3,523
other 6% +$147
world 3% +$196
politics 1% +$111
finance 1% +$59
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +0.2% -9.4% 78% 49% -4.0%
≤30d 200 +0.8% -8.8% 76% 48% -8.5%
≤90d 624 +0.6% -9.0% 73% 45% -11.5%
all 688 -0.5% -10.0% 72% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 45% -11.6%
10% -18.6% 22% -20.1%
15% -26.4% 12% -27.8%
20% -33.7% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$70 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$2,712
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses497 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$354
Open positions3
Markets (closed)688 / 697
History coverage116d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Justina Mikulskyte 83¢ 60¢ $300 $217 −$83 (-28%)
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens Osaka 68¢ 54¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 38¢ 62¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens Jun 23 $201 +$23 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $251 +$51 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii Jun 23 $401 +$48 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 23 $202 +$75 +37%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $441 −$190 -43%
Set 1 Winner: Inglis vs Bronzetti Jun 23 $501 +$31 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $228 +$19 +8%
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 23 $802 +$52 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $101 +$58 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 23 $801 +$37 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $802 +$77 +10%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $352 +$90 +26%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $201 +$22 +11%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$31 +150%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $201 +$32 +16%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $200 +$15 +7%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $200 +$15 +7%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$5 +54%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$18 +59%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $200 +$14 +7%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $401 +$53 +13%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $401 +$21 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $30 +$6 +18%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $601 +$26 +4%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +13%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $30 +$13 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $200 +$15 +7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $300 +$10 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $703 +$111 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$12 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $201 +$20 +10%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $8 +$2 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Begu vs Korpatsch Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe Jun 20 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 $0 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$10 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens SELL Osaka 100¢ $224 0m
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens BUY Osaka 68¢ $30 21m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $303 23m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 100¢ $449 28m
Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens BUY Osaka 89¢ $201 30m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Justina Mikulskyte 87¢ $100 42m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Justina Mikulskyte 81¢ $201 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 88¢ $201 56m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska SELL Lina Gjorcheska 100¢ $276 57m
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 38¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 89¢ $401 1h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Lorenzo Sonego 54¢ $251 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Xinyu Wang 100¢ $247 1h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Lorenzo Sonego 95¢ $401 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 66¢ $51 1h
Set 1 Winner: Inglis vs Bronzetti BUY Bronzetti 94¢ $501 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 76¢ $101 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 92¢ $28 2h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov SELL Grigor Dimitrov 100¢ $854 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Lina Gjorcheska 69¢ $101 2h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Lorenzo Sonego 81¢ $40 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 92¢ $200 2h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 94¢ $501 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 100¢ $838 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 96¢ $501 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $879 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 95¢ $300 3h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 93¢ $301 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 91¢ $802 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $101 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.38 · official $286.93 · 1606 history records