Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
03 0x0323…88ce world 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$42 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 62L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$32
14 days+$43
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$57
sports 17% $0
politics 14% −$4
other 13% −$9
tech 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 31 -0.8% -10.3% 42% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 48 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 6% -9.2%
all 107 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 62
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage474d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $202 $194 −$8 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $166 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $299 +$19 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $219 +$15 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $122 +$13 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $158 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $313 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $150 −$7 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $164 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $130 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $290 +$3 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $192 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $147 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $463 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $146 +$2 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $289 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $143 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $144 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 29 $594 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $141 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $114 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $156 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $155 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $94 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $30 −$16 -53%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $102 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $520 −$1 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 06 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $173 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $274 −$3 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $110 −$4 -3%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $83 +$5 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,179 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,184 −$5 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 15 $27 −$2 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $747 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $202 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $163 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $70 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $95 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $96 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $87 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $155 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $154 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $186 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $113 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $113 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $169 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $165 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $135 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $122 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $158 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.26 · official $194.31 · 367 history records